The hottest automation threat is approaching, and

  • Detail

The threat of automation is approaching, and the six major reasons for unemployment are highlighted.

robots will eventually replace some human jobs, but it is uncertain how many jobs will be replaced; At the same time, it is uncertain which jobs will become more interesting and which will become more boring

Brookings think tank analyzed the data of McKinsey and the 2016 U.S. Census, pointing out that automation and artificial intelligence will have varying degrees of impact on Americans

young people in rural areas or at the bottom of society are particularly likely to be replaced by automation. On the contrary, living in big cities, older people or well-educated whites are more likely to remain in their positions, on the one hand, because their jobs are irreplaceable, on the other hand, they can find new jobs in the era of robot hegemony

the Brookings Institution warned that automation will exacerbate geographical and demographic inequalities because it will eliminate some low skilled jobs, which are often the cornerstone of high skilled careers. The disappearance of low skilled jobs will be concentrated in rural areas, especially the coastal areas of the United States

from the perspective of gender, male occupations are more likely to be replaced. According to the Brookings Institution, compared with female occupations, traditional male occupations often need to be carried out manually, and the automation level of such occupations is higher, which means that machines and artificial intelligence can replace most male occupations

the fundamental problem reflected in the above cases is that faster, more efficient and more accurate new technologies will lead to unemployment in all walks of life. Unemployment has a far-reaching impact, which will lead to more problems. 2. How will people in the same class transition to their future careers? What will your future career be like? Can the polarization between the rich and the poor caused by automation be eliminated

a recent McKinsey report showed that by 2030, automation may replace one-third of human work, which means that a large number of people do not have to regularly check the temperature, vibration and internal wires of electromechanical devices without looking for new jobs to maintain their livelihood

Alastair fitzpayne of the future work plan research group of Aspen Institute said: we see an anger in people all over the country because they feel abandoned by the American dream, and many people are facing the threat of automation

fitzpayne said: without policy intervention, economic problems such as stagnant wages, low labor participation rate and the increase in the number of low wage jobs are becoming worse and worse. Reviewing the history of the past 150 years, the development of high technology has both advantages and disadvantages. It can promote economic growth, create employment opportunities, and improve residents' income, but all these growth is based on inclusive mechanisms

before proposing a solution, we identified six factors to show the different degrees of influence of automation on different groups of people and the occupations that are easy to survive in the robot era through charts:

occupation type

occupation type will affect the possibility of personal work being replaced. Jobs that require high accuracy and strong repeatability, such as food production and manufacturing, are easy to realize automation; Jobs that require creativity and critical thinking, such as analysts and teachers, are difficult to be replaced by machines. The following figure shows the impact of automation on various industries:

education level

personal education level significantly affects everyone's career type, and education and career are closely related. The less educated people are, the more likely they are to engage in highly automated jobs, and the more educated people have more career choices


compared with older people, young people are less likely to obtain a high degree, so young people are more likely to engage in entry-level jobs. These jobs do not change much, and there is no need to make many decisions, resulting in greater automation risks in young people's work


the robot revolution will continue to exacerbate racial inequality because ethnic minorities living at the bottom of society are more engaged in jobs that are easily replaced by automation, such as food services, office management and agriculture


men usually get better jobs and higher salaries than women, but men are also the first people to be eliminated by automation. Male jobs are usually concentrated in production, transportation, construction and other industries, which are easy to be replaced by automation; Women's work usually requires interaction with others, and such work needs to be completed by humans to a large extent. In addition, women are more likely than men to obtain a high degree, which also saves women from the trouble of automation to a certain extent


the industries in the central and rural areas of the United States are mainly manufacturing, transportation, mining and other intensive industries, which have great potential for automation. Small metropolitan areas are also very easy to automate, with the exception of the location of universities. Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd., which is high-tech centered and has a large number of talents with higher education, has been a manufacturing enterprise city for many years, such as New York, San Jose, California, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The degree of automation is the least affected

the map below shows the extent to which each city is affected by automation. The darker the purple, the greater the impact of automation

it is worth noting that the population related to the above six factors are greatly affected by automation. According to the Brookings Institute, according to different demographic factors, at least 20% of the population's occupations will change due to automation. Of course, the work of any group will not end, but the focus of our work will change

Mark Muro, senior researcher of the metropolitan policy program at the Brookings Institution, said: at present, those who struggle with food and clothing are most likely to be threatened by automation, which is worth pondering

the worst result of automation is the soaring unemployment rate in the United States and the widening of the existing social gap. According to estimates, about 3million to 80million Americans may lose their jobs due to automation, with serious consequences

Martin Ford, the author of "the rise of robots and artificial intelligence", said: the rise of robots is very likely. The initial instability of automation has a greater impact on developing countries, and the final result depends on how we choose, how we act, and how we adapt to this situation

fortunately, there are many solutions to this problem. The Brookings Institution and others have proposed ways to reduce unemployment. These methods may make future jobs better and easier, but the difficulty is how to make the government and the private industry agree and pay for them. Brookings' policy recommendations are as follows:

create general regulatory benefits for unemployed workers. Benefits include vocational counseling, education and skills training, as well as financial support for displaced workers before they find new jobs. However, from the experience of the first manufacturing revolution, it is very difficult for the government and enterprises to work together to help and train the unskilled unemployed. The rust belt that experienced automation in the automotive and steel industries in the last century has not yet recovered. The government's general regulation plan will vary according to the scale and scope, and it provides a flawed template for future generations. Some people suggest that the carbon tax can generate billions of dollars of income, which can be used for general welfare and even basic national income. In addition, taxes on income rather than labor are also a source of general benefits

maintain full employment. Through the employment subsidy program, we can create new jobs and provide jobs for people in need. Such jobs are conducive to reducing the blow people bear in the process of work transition. Progressive Democrats proposed a green new deal, which aims to reduce the United States' dependence on fossil fuels, which may become a way to achieve full employment. The Brookings Institution proposes to adopt the federal monetary policy, which will focus on full employment, and the fight against inflation is secondary. This policy is feasible, but it needs to make meaningful adjustments to the priorities established by the Federal Reserve for a long time

introduce convenience welfare projects. In this way, workers can enjoy traditional employment benefits such as medical insurance no matter where they work, which can reduce the pressure of people during the transition to new jobs. These benefits allow people to take part-time or temporary jobs, which is necessary for many Americans. At present, half of Americans get medical insurance through work, and doctors and politicians have always been fighting the government system. At present, the concept of medical benefit plan is very common in the casual economy such as free trade unions and Uber

pay special attention to the severely damaged areas. From the chart above, we can see that the problems in some parts of the United States are more serious than those in other places. At present, there are many plans to provide regional protection for high-risk communities, which can be promoted to deal with the crisis brought by automation. The Ministry of defense has conducted a small-scale pilot, and its program can help communities adjust in the case of company closure or cancellation. Automated assistance will provide various benefits, including grants, project management and rectification funds. In addition, the opportunity areas provided by the tax law are popular in the technology industry. The policy provides tax incentives for companies investing in low-income areas, whose investment will create employment opportunities and stimulate consumption

increase investment in AI and automation related technology fields. In the face of many problems brought about by automation, this seems illogical, but the Brookings Institution believes that the adoption of new technologies is conducive to the development of economic productivity required to improve living and working standards. Brookings' Muro said: we do not advocate resisting technology. We call on people to pay attention to the positive role of technology, which is conducive to improving the productivity of the United States

it is undeniable that all solutions are not panacea, but if we can take action as soon as possible, it will help alleviate some problems faced by Americans due to the improvement of automation. However, at present, many ideas are too advanced, which is difficult to implement in the Republican led government

ford said: I am a long-term optimist. I think we will solve these problems. Facing technology, we have no choice, because artificial intelligence and robot technology can help us solve some crucial problems, such as climate change and disease

he also said: in the short term, our road will be very difficult. Based on the current political atmosphere, I am very worried about our reaction ability in a certain period of time. But it must be emphasized that the cost of maintaining the status quo will be higher than that of making changes. Although the general election bill for the executive presidency was not passed in the Legislative Council

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI